by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2022 05:03:00 PM
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).
I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
2) Employment: Through November 2021, the economy added 6.1 million jobs in 2021. This makes 2021 the best year for job growth ever – by far. However, there are still 3.9 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Will the remaining jobs lost in 2020 return in 2022, or will job growth be sluggish?
Total nonfarm (000s)
Jan-21
233
Feb-21
536
Mar-21
785
Apr-21
269
May-21
614
Jun-21
962
Jul-21
1,091
Aug-21
483
Sep-21
379
Oct-21
546
Nov-21
210
Dec-21
—
The consensus forecast is for 400 thousand jobs added in December.
My guess is something like 2.5 to 3.0 million jobs could be added in 2022, but it will depend on the pandemic (and policy). This fits with my view of sluggish labor force growth, an increase in the participation rate, and a decline in the unemployment rate. That would mean there are still fewer jobs at the end of 2022, than before the pandemic.
Some thoughts:
o Question #2 for 2022: Will the remaining jobs lost in 2020 return in 2022, or will job growth be sluggish?
o Question #3 for 2022: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2022?
o Question #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?
o Question #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?
o Question #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?
o Question #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?
o Question #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?
o Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?
o Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?
